Causal inference goes beyond prediction by modeling the outcome of interventions and formalizing counterfactual reasoning. In this blog post, I provide an introduction to the graphical approach to causal inference in the tradition of Sewell Wright, Judea Pearl, and others. We first rehash the common adage that correlation is not causation. We t... Read more 30 Nov 2019 - 37 minute read

Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be notoriously slow. In this blog post, we reframe Bayesian inference as an optimization problem using variational inference, markedly speeding up computation. We derive the variational objective function, implement coordinate ascent mean-field variational inference for a simp... Read more 30 Oct 2019 - 18 minute read

If you are reading this, you are probably a Ravenclaw. Or a Hufflepuff. Certainly not a Slytherin … but maybe a Gryffindor? In this blog post, we let three subjective Bayesians predict the outcome of ten coin flips. We will derive prior predictions, evaluate their accuracy, and see how fortune favours the bold. We will also discover a neat tric... Read more 28 Sep 2019 - 13 minute read

Differential equations are a powerful tool for modeling how systems change over time, but they can be a little hard to get into. Love, on the other hand, is humanity’s perennial topic; some even claim it is all you need. In this blog post — inspired by Strogatz (1988, 2015) — I will introduce linear differential equations as a means to study the... Read more 29 Aug 2019 - 31 minute read

Leonardo Bonacci, better known as Fibonacci, has influenced our lives profoundly. At the beginning of the $13^{th}$ century, he introduced the Hindu-Arabic numeral system to Europe. Instead of the Roman numbers, where I stands for one, V for five, X for ten, and so on, the Hindu-Arabic numeral system uses position to index magnitude. This leads ... Read more 28 Jul 2019 - 14 minute read

The number of storks and the number of human babies delivered are positively correlated (Matthews, 2000). This is a classic example of a spurious correlation which has a causal explanation: a third variable, say economic development, is likely to cause both an increase in storks and an increase in the number of human babies, hence the correlatio... Read more 29 Jun 2019 - 10 minute read

Practice makes better. And faster. But what exactly is the relation between practice and reaction time? In this blog post, we will focus on two contenders: the power law and exponential function. We will implement these models in Stan and extend them to account for learning plateaus and the fact that, with increased practice, not only th... Read more 30 May 2019 - 32 minute read

Regularization is the process of adding information to an estimation problem so as to avoid extreme estimates. Put differently, it safeguards against foolishness. Both Bayesian and frequentist methods can incorporate prior information which leads to regularized estimates, but they do so in different ways. In this blog post, I illustrate these tw... Read more 15 Apr 2019 - 18 minute read

“Which variables are important?” is a key question in science and statistics. In this blog post, I focus on linear models and discuss a Bayesian solution to this problem using spike-and-slab priors and the Gibbs sampler, a computational method to sample from a joint distribution using only conditional distributions. Variable selection is a beas... Read more 31 Mar 2019 - 45 minute read

In a previous blog post, we looked at the history of least squares, how Gauss justified it using the Gaussian distribution, and how Laplace justified the Gaussian distribution using the central limit theorem. The Gaussian distribution has a number of special properties which distinguish it from other distributions and which make it easy to wor... Read more 28 Feb 2019 - 13 minute read

Judea Pearl said that much of machine learning is just curve fitting1 — but it is quite impressive how far you can get with that, isn’t it? In this blog post, we will look at the mother of all curve fitting problems: fitting a straight line to a number of points. In doing so, we will engage in some statistical detective work and discover the met... Read more 11 Jan 2019 - 19 minute read

The blog post reviews and summarizes the book “Ten Great Ideas about Chance” by Diaconis and Skyrms. A much shorter version of this review has been published in Significance, see here. In ten short chapters, Persi Diaconis and Brian Skyrms provide a bird’s eye perspective on probability theory and its connection to other disciplines. The book... Read more 11 Jan 2019 - 15 minute read